Tudor 2023 Predictions Recap

For more than a month, we’ve been publishing our hopes and predictions for Watches and Wonders Geneva 2023. In just two days, we’ll know which ones come true. Tudor predictions are particularly fun. In the 10 short years they’ve been in the US market, they've dominated the $5,000-and-under segment. Tudor continues to push the envelope with new materials and designs. With Watches and Wonders right around the corner, let’s recap all of our Tudor predictions.

Blue Tudor Pelagos 39 

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The Pelagos 39 was one of the most popular watches of 2022. It offers the appeal of the Pelagos – titanium case, capable specs, modern design – in an incredibly wearable 39mm package. Tudor played it relatively safe with the color scheme: black bezel, black dial, red ‘Pelagos’ text. This made for a good-looking versatile diver, but it left people wanting more. A blue Pelagos 39, perhaps with matte finishing (as opposed to current brushed sunray finish), would undoubtedly be a fan favorite. In all likelihood, Watches and Wonders Geneva is too soon for a new Pelagos 39 color. That said, I would be shocked if we didn’t see a blue version in the near future. 

Ceramic Tudor Black Bay Chronograph 

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The 2021 Tudor Black Bay Ceramic was a hit. The lightweight, scratch proof properties of ceramic elevate the already exceptional Black Bay silhouette, not to mention this watch’s stunning blacked-out design. Last month, Michael DiMartini predicted that Tudor would double down on this material, releasing a full-ceramic Black Bay Chronograph. We haven’t seen Tudor lean into their chronographs to the same extent as their contemporaries (namely their sister brand Rolex). A ceramic edition would bring excitement to the Black Bay Chrono line. Although it would surely come at a premium (and likely be hard to obtain), this watch would still be a bargain considering its Breitling B-01-based movement. 

36mm Tudor Ranger 

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The 2022 Tudor Ranger (Ref. 79950) is a no-frills premium field watch. With exceptional legibility, elegant satin finishing, and Tudor’s newest in-house movement (MT5402), this watch is an absolute steal at $3,150 on a bracelet. Its 39mm size is a good middle ground and certainly feels more appropriate than the 41mm Heritage Ranger. Still, 39mm feels distant from the watch’s sub-38mm history. Enthusiasts have been wanting a smaller Ranger for years now. Vincent Deschamps recently discussed the potential of a 36mm Tudor Ranger, describing it as less of a prediction and more of a “selfish dream”. I’m right there with you Vincent. He also hopes for a 3 o’clock date window magnified by a cyclops lens: an homage to the 1960’s Tudor Oysterdate Ranger 7966. I have my fingers crossed for this one; it’s my perfect everyday watch. 

Updated Tudor Heritage Chronograph

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The Tudor Heritage Chronograph was launched in 2010 to celebrate the 40th anniversary of their first chronograph: the ref. 7031/2 ‘Home Plate’. Although it honors the first generation, it takes after the subsequent prototype ref. 7033, equipped with a bidirectional rotating bezel. Aside from the expected movement and material upgrades, the Heritage Chrono is a fairly true-to-form homage. The watch’s biggest change comes with its 42mm size: 3mm larger than the original Home Plate. Caroline Jost recently predicted that we’ll see an updated Tudor Heritage Chrono. 13 years later, maybe it will return to its 39mm size. I’d also love to see a 6 o’clock cyclops comeback. It’s such a strange feature of the original Home Plate. . . and I think I love it.

Tudor Black Bay P01 Discontinued 

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The Tudor Black Bay P01 is “a confirmation of an urban myth”, as Ross Povey describes it. Before its 2019 release, little was known about the P01’s inspiration: a 1960’s prototype watch made for the US Navy featuring a 4 o’clock crown and unique bezel-locking mechanism. The P01’s debut was polarizing. While it’s certainly a unique watch with interesting history, the P01 is a very niche product. Its bezel-locking mechanism creates extremely long lugs and end-links that make for noticeably awkward proportions. The P01 frankly doesn’t feel like a permanent catalog item, and thus, Jamie Morton predicts that it will be discontinued this year. 

Tudor Black Bay Movement Overhaul

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The Black Bay name encompasses nine separate categories with 100+ variations. Tudor has introduced new models and movements over the years, creating the need for some serious housekeeping. The Black Bay 32/36/41 collection still use non-chronometer ETA-based movements. I predict that we’ll see these replaced with Tudor’s in house caliber MT5402 this year. The core 41mm Black Bay category still uses Tudor’s caliber MT5602 from 2015. This is a solid movement, but it’s thicker and less accurate than the newer MT5402, despite similar and sometimes more expensive pricing. I expect to see the MT5602 phased out in favor of the brand’s superior movement offerings. 

Final Thoughts

In recent years, Tudor has proven to be agile and willing to change. With multiple exciting young collections and decades of rich history, the brand could go any direction while keeping things interesting . Whatever they decide to release, we’ll be at Watches and Wonders Geneva to cover it. Time to pack my bags!

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