Rolex Prices Just Had Its Slowest Quarter in Almost Two Years

Pre-owned watch prices went up again this summer. The WatchCharts Overall Market index, which follows 300 watches from 10 brands weighted by how much money actually changes hands on each, rose 1.2% from July through September. That made five straight quarters of gains above 1%, and 28 of the 35 brands WatchCharts tracks finished the quarter higher than they started it.

A no-date Rolex Submariner on an Everest Rubber Strap. Rolex makes up more than half of the WatchCharts Overall Market index by transaction value.

Rolex, which accounts for more than half of that index, rose 0.5%. According to Morgan Stanley’s quarterly watch market report, published October 13 and built on WatchCharts data, that’s the smallest quarterly gain Rolex has posted in seven quarters. Chrono24, which runs a separate index based on sales through its own marketplace, had Rolex slipping 0.2% over the same three months.

Rolex Gained Less Than Almost Every Major Brand in Q3

Rolex finished the third quarter behind 10 of the 12 other brands shown here, and below the 1.2% gain for the market overall. Image Source: Everest Journal, with data from WatchCharts

The rest of the top tier had a better summer. Patek Philippe rose 2.6% for the quarter and is up 17.6% over the past year, the strongest annual gain of any brand in the report. A. Lange & Söhne gained 4.4%, Chopard 3.8% and Vacheron Constantin 3.1%. Cartier rose 2.4%, and its price tracker hit a record high, above even its 2022 levels. Audemars Piguet’s 1.2% matched the market. Of the brands in the report, only Omega, at 0.6%, landed anywhere near Rolex, while Hublot and Bulgari slipped into negative territory.

Chrono24’s numbers point the same direction. Its ChronoPulse index rose 0.7% in the third quarter and closed September at 1,471 points, its highest level in three years. It had Vacheron Constantin up 6.7% for the quarter and Patek Philippe up 3%.

Rolex GMT-Master II in an Everest Leather Watch Pouch

For perspective, the overall WatchCharts index is still about 29% below its April 2022 peak, after 11 straight quarters of declines that followed it. The recovery since then has been slow and steady, and for most of it Rolex did the pulling. In January, Coronet pointed out that Rolex resale prices had climbed back to roughly where their pre-pandemic growth rate would have put them anyway. A brand sitting right on its long-term trend line has less reason to keep outrunning everyone else.

More Watches Are Listed for Sale Than Ever

Rolex Datejust ref. 1601 with black dial. Image Source: Analog:Shift

Morgan Stanley’s explanation for the slowdown is supply. The report describes Rolex as facing a “stagnation of demand against rising supply,” and the listing data backs that up. Across the six biggest brands (Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Cartier, Omega and IWC), the total value of watches listed for sale rose 5.7% from the prior quarter and 19.3% from a year earlier, setting a record for all six. New listings outpaced sales for every one of them.

The report also tracks absorption rate, which measures how quickly the watches on the market are actually selling relative to how many are listed. Rolex’s fell to its lowest level since the third quarter of 2024. Buyers are still buying, but sellers are adding watches faster than buyers are taking them.

Morgan Stanley still calls the overall market “fundamentally healthy,” with the caveat that “elevated inventory could limit further secondary price appreciation.” For Rolex, that limit already looks like it’s in effect.

Rolex Certified Pre-Owned Had Its Best Quarter Yet

Rolex’s Certified Pre-Owned program moved the other way. Rolex Certified Pre-Owned sold an estimated $229 million worth of watches in the third quarter, about 10,300 pieces, according to the same Morgan Stanley report. That’s up 61% from a year earlier and 30% from the previous quarter, and it puts the program on pace for roughly $1 billion in sales over a year. The number of participating retailers worldwide has grown to 167.

Buyers in that channel are paying for the two-year Rolex guarantee and peace of mind purchasing directly from Rolex. The median CPO watch sold for 23.1% more than the same reference from a reputable non-certified dealer. A strong CPO quarter and a flat open market can both be true at once. Some buyers value an authorized dealer’s guarantee enough to pay a large premium for it, and the buyers shopping everywhere else are finding more choice than they’ve had in years.

Retail Prices Keep Rising While Resale Stays Flat

Rolex Bond Street Boutique. Image Source: Hodinkee

All of this is happening while Rolex keeps raising retail prices. The brand raised prices by about 7% on average in January, the seventh year in a row it has done so, then added a second increase on June 1 that hit only gold models. We covered that gold-only increase in June.

When retail climbs and resale doesn’t, the premium over retail shrinks. At the end of September, the average pre-owned Rolex traded at a 10.3% premium to its retail price, per Morgan Stanley. That’s still second only to Patek Philippe at 16.3%, and ahead of Audemars Piguet at 5.9%. Every other brand in the report trades at a discount of at least 25% to retail. Morgan Stanley also suggests that rising secondary supply could eventually limit how far brands can push retail prices. So far, that hasn’t stopped Rolex, which has raised prices every January for seven years running.

One Slow Quarter Doesn’t Make a Downturn

A Rolex GMT-Master II ref. 16710 on an Everest Rubber Strap. Each strap’s curved end is molded to fit a specific Rolex reference.

A 0.5% gain is still a gain, and Chrono24 has Rolex prices up 6% over the past 12 months. Rolex also makes up more than half of the WatchCharts index, and its average blends dozens of references, from steel sport models to precious metal pieces like the full yellow gold Submariner Date, which we noted in June was trading in the mid-$40,000s against a $50,900 retail price. An average that broad moves slowly.

Investors haven’t soured on Rolex retail either. Shares of Watches of Switzerland, one of the largest Rolex retailers, are up about 48% this year, according to Forbes. And while Rolex’s resale premium is thinner than it was, the average Rolex still sells for more than retail on the open market. Only Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet can say the same in this report.

What a Flat Quarter Means If You’re Buying a Rolex

For buyers, a record amount of inventory means more choice and, on some references, more room to negotiate than there’s been in a while. That’s especially true for models already trading at or below retail. A slower market also gives you time to compare examples, ask for full photos and check service history instead of rushing to beat the next buyer.

The basics stay the same. Buy an authentic watch from a seller with a track record, and don’t let the cheapest listing make the decision for you. A lower price on a watch with a replaced dial or an unclear history is no bargain. Our guide on how to buy a Rolex without getting scammed covers what to check, and our pre-owned Rolex and Tudor picks for fall is a good place to start if you’re shopping.

Whatever you end up wearing, new or pre-owned, a strap is the least expensive way to change how it looks and wears. Everest rubber straps are molded to fit specific Rolex references and ship with the correct spring bars installed.

Are you shopping for a Rolex right now, or waiting to see where prices go? Let us know in the comments below.