Will Secondhand Watch Prices Go Up in 2025?

Here at Everest, we’re constantly watching the secondhand watch market. We follow it closely—both to spot good deals and to track down discontinued models that aren’t available at retail. Not long ago, we wrote about the potential impact of new tariffs on Swiss watches entering the U.S., and our assumption was that they would drive up retail prices. That assumption is already proving accurate, and now we’re looking at how that could impact the secondhand market.

When Retail Prices Go Up, Secondhand Usually Follows

Rolex Submariner on Everest Curved-End Rubber Strap

It’s not a surprise to suggest that if the retail (or first-hand) market rises due to outside factors like tariffs or taxes, the secondhand market may follow. Like most markets, the watch world is driven by supply and demand. Right now, there’s plenty of supply in the secondhand market—but that could change quickly.

If fewer watches are shipped into the U.S., retail availability could tighten. And when that happens, secondhand sellers often raise prices. We saw a version of this play out in the automotive world in 2021 and 2022. Supply chain issues caused major shortages in new car inventories, and as a result, both new and used car prices rose—even when demand remained relatively flat.

The same logic applies here. If brands slow U.S. distribution due to tariffs or pricing pressure, secondhand prices may climb, even without a dramatic shift in demand.

Tariffs, Fear, and the Rolex Index

Figure Source: Chrono24

One factor that’s hard to quantify but still very real is fear. In this case, the concern is that Swiss brands may reduce supply to the U.S. in response to increased import costs. Even the possibility of that happening can push prices up as buyers and sellers anticipate a tighter market.

We’ve already seen this reflected in the Chrono24 Rolex Index, which tracks the secondhand prices of 140 Rolex references. On April 2nd—the day President Trump announced proposed tariffs—the index sat at 1,491 points. As of today, it has risen to 1,499. That’s not a massive spike, but it is a measurable increase in a short period of time. Rolex is the largest brand in the industry, and its secondhand performance tends to signal broader market sentiment.

Not Every Rolex Is Above Retail Anymore

Rolex Sea-Dweller on Everest Curved End Rubber Strap

It's also worth noting that secondhand Rolex prices vary widely by model. While desirable steel sports models like the Submariner, GMT-Master II, and Daytona still command premiums above retail, many solid gold sports models have softened below MSRP. The Sea-Dweller 126600, which once traded far above retail, can now be found on the secondary market for less than its list price.

This kind of softening isn’t necessarily a warning sign—it’s part of the natural market cycle. But it’s an important reminder that not every watch holds value the same way, especially in periods of pricing fluctuation.

A Thought on Ownership

If you already own watches, it’s worth asking yourself whether rising prices are a bad thing. Personally, I think it’s a good thing. I don’t treat watches as an asset class, but when I look at a watch I purchased a few years ago and see that it has held value—or even increased—while my stock portfolio hasn’t, I don’t complain.

It’s a bit like real estate. When you’re shopping for a house, it’s easy to be frustrated by the prices. But once you’ve owned that house for a few years and see the value go up, that frustration usually disappears. I think a similar mindset can apply to watch ownership—especially when you see retail prices rising year after year.

Final Thoughts

We can’t predict the future, but based on what we’re seeing now, I believe secondhand prices are likely to hold steady or increase in 2025. There’s growing interest in the topic—we’ve had readers reach out asking how tariffs might affect secondhand value. And we’ve already seen the first signs of a pricing shift.

Just this month, Swatch Group (which owns brands like Omega, Tissot, and Breguet) raised retail prices by 10%. If that trend continues, secondhand buyers and sellers will have to adjust accordingly.

The market may be changing—but if you know what you’re looking for, there are still smart buys to be made.

Header Image Source: Hodinkee (Mark Kauzlarich)