U.S. Tariffs on Swiss Watches Drop to 15% — What It Means for Rolex and the Market

The United States and Switzerland announced a new framework agreement that lowers U.S. tariffs on Swiss goods from 39 percent to 15 percent. The deal isn’t final—both sides expect a completed agreement in early 2026—but it’s enough to reset expectations across the industries affected, especially watches.

For anyone who hasn’t been following the policy side of this, tariffs are essentially taxes that importers pay when goods enter a country. When the U.S. raised the rate on Swiss products to 39 percent this past August, it instantly became one of the steepest import duties Switzerland had faced from any major market. Switzerland exports far more to the U.S. than most people realize: pharmaceuticals, machinery, metals, specialty materials, and yes, luxury watches. The U.S. is consistently one of the top destinations for Swiss watches by value. When the tariff jumped, so did concerns across the entire watch industry.

The new 15 percent rate doesn’t eliminate those concerns, but it shifts the conversation from “How do we operate under an extreme tax?” to “What does a manageable import cost look like again?” That distinction is huge for watch brands, buyers, and retailers.

How the 39% tariff hit Swiss watches

The impact of the 39 percent rate showed up almost immediately. Importers rushed to clear as much inventory as possible before the deadline, then slowed shipments to a crawl once the higher tariff took effect. September’s monthly export data showed one of the sharpest drops in recent memory: U.S.-bound Swiss watch exports fell by more than half year over year. Americans didn’t suddenly lose interest in watches; it just didn’t make financial sense for brands to keep sending full volumes into a market facing nearly 40 percent import tax.

For watch buyers, that meant thinner allocations, delayed deliveries, and retailers choosing to sit tight rather than bring in product at steeply inflated landed costs. Some brands adjusted U.S. retail pricing upward—a decision that frustrated buyers but was the only real option given the circumstances.

Swiss business leaders, including Rolex CEO Jean-Frédéric Dufour, meeting at the White House. Image Source: Hodinkee

The tariff also drew in players who rarely appear in political headlines. Swiss executives flew to Washington to discuss the situation directly, and among them was Rolex’s CEO, Jean-Frédéric Dufour—a public signal of how seriously the country’s largest watch companies took the issue.

Why Rolex was in the room

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Rolex almost never inserts itself into public policy conversations, so the fact that its leadership was present shows how destabilizing the 39 percent rate was. The U.S. is a key market for Rolex, both through authorized dealers and the broader ecosystem connected to the brand. A tariff that high affects allocation strategy, long-term pricing architecture, and the consistency of supply that customers and retailers have come to expect.

Swiss watchmaking has an enormous footprint in the U.S., and Rolex represents a significant share of that value (Rolex alone accounts for roughly a quarter to a third of all Swiss watch exports by value, depending on the year). If Swiss exporters were suddenly making less margin—or no margin at all—on goods shipped into the States, the ripple effect would eventually reach every corner of the industry.

What the new 15% tariff actually changes for the watch market

Dropping the tariff from 39 percent to 15 percent doesn’t magically reverse the past three months, but it does remove the pressure valve that caused shipment freezes and pricing anxiety. A 15 percent rate is high compared to the near-zero environment Swiss brands enjoyed for decades, but it’s something companies can realistically plan around. It puts Switzerland roughly in line with the tariff structure the U.S. already uses with EU countries, which restores some predictability for exporters.

For collectors and buyers, the biggest shift will come from supply rather than sticker prices. Retail prices rarely move downward, especially in the middle of Q4, and brands generally avoid reactionary cuts even when costs improve. What will change is access: the U.S. should see more consistent inbound shipments as brands unwind the caution of the past few months.

It also reduces the temptation for customers to shop abroad or navigate unofficial channels. When tariffs distort U.S. retail pricing, the appeal of buying elsewhere goes up. A more stable 15 percent rate makes it easier for brands to keep global pricing aligned again.

Behind the scenes, this shift matters most to independent jewelers and smaller authorized dealers. These shops pay for inventory upfront when it arrives, so a nearly 40 percent jump in landed cost hits their cash flow the moment a shipment clears customs. Larger groups can spread that shock across multiple storefronts and broader revenue streams; a single-location dealer can’t.

The big picture for Swiss watches—and what to watch next

The past few months have been a stress test for the entire Swiss watch industry. A 39 percent tariff forced brands to slow U.S. shipments, rethink allocation plans, and adjust pricing strategies as quickly as they could. The new 15 percent rate alleviates most of that pressure, but it doesn’t erase how quickly the environment shifted.

What happens next will come down to data. Export volumes should recover as brands feel comfortable sending more product into the U.S., and we’ll get the first real sign of that in the monthly figures from the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry. Retail pricing is slower to react, but stability is a realistic expectation—especially for brands that raised U.S. prices this fall only to see the tariff conditions change again.

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The final version of the U.S.–Swiss agreement is expected in early 2026, and its exact terms will shape how predictable the market feels going forward. For now, the U.S. should be moving back toward something more normal: aligned costs, fewer shocks, and better conditions for consistent supply. That’s ultimately what matters most for buyers and retailers heading into the new year.