Tudor Predictions 2024: Black Bay 58 Refresh

Yesterday, I made predictions surrounding the Tudor Submariner’s 70th anniversary. Without spoiling my prediction, let’s just say that the Black Bay 58 was mentioned. The Black Bay 58 – a slim, elegant, pared-down iteration of the original Heritage Black Bay – is a favorite amongst nerds and non-enthusiasts alike. In many ways, it’s a near-perfect watch, but in my opinion, it’s itching for a refresh. Don’t get me wrong, I’d happily buy one as it exists now, but there are a few changes that seem imminent. Let’s cover what those changes might look like, as well as the probability of them taking place.

Imminent Black Bay 58 Upgrades 

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First on the list, and long overdue for the Black Bay 58, is the addition of a T-fit clasp. This toolless microadjustment system is a fan favorite from Tudor. Last year at Watches and Wonders, Teddy Baldassare interviewed Tudor’s Cole Pennington. In my own coverage, I remember quoting Pennington from this interview regarding the addition of T-fit clasps to existing Black Bay models: “We’ll get there,”. While this provides no timeline whatsoever, it does lead us to believe that we’ll see T-fit clasps added retroactively to the Black Bay collection. After all, last year’s Black Bay 54 was released with a T-fit clasp (pictured above), demonstrating that Tudor plans on using this clasp going forward (as they should). If we see a refresh of the Black Bay 58 this year, I’ll be shocked if we don’t see a T-fit clasp included.

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Next up, and slightly lower on the list of ostensible priorities for the BB58, is an upgrade to a METAS-certified Master Chronometer movement. METAS certification is an exhaustive suite of testing focused on accuracy, water resistance, and anti-magnetism. Last year, we saw the 41mm Black Bay receive an upgrade to Master Chronometer status with the Kennisi caliber MT5602-U. If we see a movement upgrade for the Black Bay 58, it will likely be to this new caliber. The Black Bay 58 is defined by its slim profile, which need not be sacrificed given the identical 6.5mm thickness of this movement to the BB58’s current caliber MT5402. That said, the MT5602-U is almost 5mm larger in diameter than the MT5402, but at 31.8mm, it’s still well within the Black Bay 58’s 39mm case diameter.

Will We See These Upgrades in 2024?

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With the exception of color and material variations, the Black Bay 58 has remained the same since its 2018 release. I’m all for “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”, and it definitely ain’t broke, but toolless microadjustment feels like a categorical improvement with no real downside. I would say the same about upgrading to the MT5602-U, but the abundance of parts and knowledge surrounding the MT5402 is arguably preferable to a new caliber. That said, Cole Pennington stated in the aforementioned interview that, eventually, “we will see the entire range become METAS-certified”. Now feels like as good of a time as ever; it’s definitely not “too soon” to see a Black Bay 58 movement upgrade. Depending on who you ask, it might be closer to “about time”. So, will we see these updates in 2024? I’ll say this: if we see one of these upgrades, we’ll see both. If it doesn’t happen this year, and pardon the pun, the clock will be ticking.

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