Rolex Cuts Production Two Years in a Row

Rolex reduced production in 2025 for the second year in a row, according to Swiss bank Vontobel, as reported by Andy Hoffman on Hodinkee. Rolex doesn't publish annual unit figures—they never have—but industry estimates have long placed output somewhere near 1.2 to 1.3 million watches per year in the period leading up to 2022. Vontobel tracks the industry through retail data and company filings, which is how they've identified the decline even without official production numbers from Rolex.

Market Share Expands as Volume Falls

Figure Source: Hodinkee

Even as production declined, Rolex's dominance grew. Vontobel estimates that the brand now accounts for roughly 61% of sales by value for Swiss watches priced above CHF 3,000 (~$3,900), up from 57% in 2023. In other words, Rolex is selling fewer watches than it did at its peak, yet capturing a larger share of the high-end market.

The broader Swiss industry has faced pressure from a strong franc, elevated gold prices, and softer demand in certain regions. Rolex, meanwhile, has consolidated its position.

Understanding the Production Cut

Rolex 'Pepsi' GMT-Master 126710 on Everest Leather Watch Pouch

Production cuts tend to indicate a problem with demand, but that oversimplifies how Rolex operates.

Rolex tightly controls distribution and allocation through its authorized dealer network. That gives them an intimate understanding of both demand and needed supply in real time. After the post-2020 surge in watch demand (when steel sports models were trading at extreme secondary premiums), normalization was inevitable. The question was whether Rolex would chase incremental unit growth or recalibrate.

Inside Rolex's Testing Facility (2015). Image Source: Hodinkee

The last two years suggest recalibration. A disciplined luxury brand doesn't flood the market to protect short-term revenue. It protects perception, attainability, and long-term pricing strategy. Cutting production modestly while maintaining strong sell-through achieves that balance.

CPO Adds Revenue Without Adding Production

At the same time new production has edged lower, Rolex's Certified Pre-Owned program has expanded. Vontobel estimates the Rolex CPO ecosystem is now worth close to CHF 500 million in annual sales.

That revenue doesn't require manufacturing a single new watch. Certified pre-owned inventory flows through authorized retail channels, keeping buyers inside the Rolex ecosystem while reinforcing resale benchmarks. As CPO grows, Rolex can generate incremental revenue and retail traffic without increasing unit output.

Here's where it gets interesting: it's unclear whether Vontobel's 61% market share figure includes CPO sales or only new watches. If CPO is included, Rolex is strategically replacing some new production with pre-owned revenue while growing market share. If it's not included, the story is even more striking—Rolex cut production but still grew its new-watch market share from 57% to 61%. Either way, production statistics alone no longer capture the full scale of Rolex's commercial footprint.

What This Means for Pricing and Owners

Rolex Day-Date 228238

Gold prices rose sharply over the past year, while precious-metal watch MSRPs climbed at a slower rate. In January 2026, Rolex raised prices again, with gold models seeing larger increases than steel. The secondary market hasn't uniformly followed those MSRP changes, especially in gold references where retail and resale have drifted apart.

Curved-End Rubber Strap for Rolex Daytona

Steel sports models remain driven by demand rather than list price. Core references like the Submariner, GMT-Master II, and Daytona continue to trade on their own dynamics.

Shrinking production doesn't mean your Submariner doubles in value tomorrow. It does mean Rolex is unlikely to dilute its market position through oversupply. In a period when parts of the Swiss industry are contracting, Rolex appears to be tightening output while expanding influence—building revenue through both fewer new watches and a growing certified pre-owned channel.