Rolex Prices Are Finally Steadying — Here’s Why

After three years of steady decline, Rolex prices are quietly moving upward again. Not in a frenzy or a speculative rush, just a slow, consistent climb. According to the latest Morgan Stanley and WatchCharts report, the secondary-market value of Rolex watches rose roughly 1.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025, marking the first sustained positive movement since early 2022.

That change might sound minor, but after thirteen consecutive quarters of decline, it matters. It suggests the correction that followed the 2022 bubble has finally reached a stable floor. Rolex’s upward drift isn’t a coincidence, and it isn’t isolated. It reflects tariffs, pricing adjustments, and something harder to quantify—a subtle shift in how collectors are thinking about value.

Why Rolex Prices Are Rising (Slightly)

Several forces are pushing the market in the same direction. The first is economic reality. When the United States imposed a thirty-nine-percent tariff on imported Swiss watches earlier this year, brands responded with retail price hikes to offset costs. Rolex’s own U.S. increase—about three percent in May—was modest by comparison, but it set a new anchor for perception. Buyers tend to benchmark secondary prices against retail. When retail moves up, the pre-owned market often follows.

Image Source: Rolex

Those higher sticker prices also re-calibrate buyer psychology. Collectors who spent much of the past two years waiting for “the bottom” now see stability instead of freefall. That perception alone can spark momentum. Rolex’s data reinforces it: the brand still leads all of Swiss watchmaking in value retention, with pre-owned pieces trading an average of about fifteen percent above retail. While other brands raise prices and lose ground, Rolex holds it.

There is also the matter of supply. Rolex hasn’t meaningfully increased production (yet—they will soon when the Bulle production facility opens) or loosened allocation to authorized dealers. That restraint keeps inventory balanced even as tariffs and rising input costs ripple through the industry. In plain terms, Rolex continues to sell fewer watches than people want to buy, and that equation has always supported long-term price stability.

Curved End Rubber Strap For Rolex Daytona

The most interesting driver, though, is behavioral. The crash after February 2022 humbled the flipper economy. Collectors who once chased the hottest references at any cost have redirected attention toward watches they can actually wear. The data shows it: the strongest performers this quarter were not Daytonas or GMT-Masters but the Day-Date and Datejust. Those are classic, versatile watches that have little to do with hype and everything to do with daily wear. The same psychology is lifting adjacent segments like Tudor, which posted a 1.4 percent gain in Q3 2025, according to Morgan Stanley’s group analysis.

How Rolex’s Strategy Fuels Stability

Rolex’s quiet consistency is no accident. The company’s pricing discipline has always favored gradual, predictable adjustments over reactive swings. That strategy pays off in moments like this, when buyers are looking for safe ground. A three-percent retail increase paired with a one-percent secondary-market gain doesn’t make for sensational headlines, but it reinforces trust. Collectors interpret that steadiness as proof that the brand’s value isn’t dependent on hype cycles.

Because Rolex carries roughly two-thirds of the weighting in WatchCharts’ overall index alongside Patek Philippe, even a small change in its numbers can sway sentiment across the industry. In Q3 2025, Patek’s secondary prices climbed nearly four percent, but much of that rise was driven by a fifteen-percent retail price hike in the U.S. Rolex’s smaller, steadier climb looks less dramatic—but far more sustainable.

The Data Beneath the Headline

Image Source: Patek Philippe

Beyond Rolex and Patek, the broader industry picture remains uneven. The Swatch Group gained about half a percent thanks to Omega’s two-percent uptick, while Richemont and LVMH both posted modest declines of roughly one to two percent. The entire market hasn’t turned; Rolex is simply leading the first measurable recovery. When the brand that defines liquidity begins to rise again, that confidence tends to ripple outward.

Why This Rise Is Different

What separates 2025’s rebound from the surge of 2022, beyond its sheer scale, is its tone. Three years ago, gains were speculative—driven by crypto wealth, pandemic-era liquidity, and the fear of missing out. This year’s rise is slower and sturdier, propelled by tariffs, disciplined production, and a collector base that now prizes wearability and taste over hype. It is less dramatic to watch but far more confidence-inspiring as a buyer.

Even the models leading the rebound reflect that shift. The Day-Date and Datejust are not the usual “hype Rolexes.” They are watches people actually buy to own, service, and keep.

Why This Shouldn’t Scare Buyers

Image Source: Hodinkee

A rising market can intimidate newcomers, but it shouldn’t. A one-percent quarterly gain does not mark the start of another bubble; it signals that buyers trust Rolex again. For most collectors, a stable market is good news. A watch purchased today is less likely to lose value tomorrow, even if it never doubles overnight.

More importantly, this modest rebound is a reminder that numbers alone don’t define value. The Rolex that makes the most sense for you might not be the cheapest or the one trending upward—it’s the one you’ll actually wear. Personal taste and daily enjoyment are better measures of return than any index.

What “Steadying” Really Means

Prices will continue to shift, and indexes will update again next quarter, but the broader message is simple. Rolex’s ability to hold ground through tariffs, inflation, and a global correction shows why it remains the anchor of the watch world. The best time to buy a Rolex isn’t when the chart tells you to; it’s when you find the one that feels right on your wrist. A five-percent swing might move headlines, but it doesn’t change why people buy the watch in the first place.