More Rolex Submariners at ADs — Is a New One Coming?

At a recent watch meetup, I talked to two separate people who had been allocated Rolex Submariners within the past month — one with a date window, ref. 126610, one without, ref. 124060. These aren't the easiest watches to get, so I started digging through one of the more useful resources for tracking this kind of thing: the Rolex AD Wait Time Megathread on the r/Rolex subreddit, where buyers post their allocation details after the fact — reference, wait time, location, purchase history. It's anecdotal by nature, but across enough entries it starts to paint a picture.

Rolex Submariner ref. 124060. Image Source: Rolex

For context: Rolex sells exclusively through authorized dealers — ADs — rather than directly to consumers. Getting a steel sport Rolex like the Submariner typically means joining a "waitlist" at your local AD, which is really just registering your interest. There is no linear waitlist and you are not guaranteed any Rolex watch; ADs have full control over who they allocate watches to and when. Walk-ins, where someone enters an AD without a prior relationship and leaves with a watch, are uncommon for a desirable reference like the Submariner. The same goes for buyers with no purchase history at all.

Screenshot from the AD Wait Time Megathread on Reddit

What I've seen posted in the past two weeks: a no-date 124060 purchased as a walk-in in Boston with zero purchase history. Another walk-in 124060 in Texas — no purchase history. A Starbucks — the green-bezel, black-dial Submariner Date — in Canada after 2.5 months with no prior purchases. A black-dial date Sub in Colorado after just one month, no purchase history. A no-date in the San Francisco Bay Area after two months with one prior purchase. Multiple references, multiple regions, multiple ADs — and a recurring theme of short waits and thin purchase histories.

None of this is verified. Reddit self-reports are self-selected and impossible to fact-check. Further, those who have been allocated a desirable Rolex within a short period and/or without purchase history are ostensibly more likely to post about it. Still, if we're compiling anecdotes, I may as well compile them. It seems like a lot of Subs are going out the door.

What It Could Mean

Rolex Submariner ref. 126610 in box with papers. Image Source: Noah's Fine Watches and Jewelry

My theory, stated plainly: if it's true that people are getting Submariners more easily than usual, Rolex is sending more of them to ADs. And if Rolex is pushing existing references into the pipeline at higher volume — especially something as desirable as a steel Sub — the most logical explanation is that they're clearing inventory ahead of something new.

Every link in that chain is conditional. We don't have confirmed evidence that allocations are actually up — we have anecdotes. If those anecdotes reflect something real, increased supply at the AD level almost certainly means increased distribution from Geneva. Rolex doesn't flood the market with an existing reference without a reason.

Rolex 'Hulk' Submariner ref. 116610LV. Image Source: Bob's Watches

For what that new release might actually look like, I've covered a few possibilities in our 2026 Submariner prediction piece — a Hulk revival, a new colorway, a precious metal variant. If my steel Submariner theory is right, it would make sense that a new variant would come in steel, though I'm not expecting a new reference generation just yet — the 41mm Sub only came out in 2020.

If You're Waiting on a Submariner

Curved-End Rubber Strap For Rolex Submariner

Whether or not this theory holds up, now is a reasonable time to check in with your AD. Dropping in periodically to reaffirm your interest is always worthwhile — it keeps you visible, and if allocations genuinely are loosening, you want to be top of mind when one comes through. Don't wait for them to call you.

With Watches & Wonders 2026 coming in April, the next few weeks should tell us a lot. Stay tuned to the Everest Journal — we'll be at the show in Geneva for day one coverage.